Jobless Claims Point to Lower Unemployment Readings

Improvement is convincing in jobless claims where lower levels spell lower levels for unemployment readings. Initial claims edged 1,000 lower to a lower-than-expected 287,000 in the October 4 week while the 4-week average fell a very sharp 7,250 in the week to 287,750. From a month ago, the average is down 7,500 which is a comparison that offers an early hint of strength for the October employment report. The average is also at a new recovery low, its lowest level since February 2006.

Continuing claims, which are reported with a 1-week lag, tell the same story. Continuing claims in the September 27 week fell 21,000 to 2.381 million for a new recovery low while the 4-week average fell 28,000 to a new recovery low of 2.414 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged for a 4th straight week at a recovery low of 1.8 percent.

Layoffs may be down but that doesn't always spell a corresponding increase in hiring which may still be lagging. Nevertheless, claims data are a certain positive for the labor market. There are no special factors in today's report.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Initial jobless claims fell 8,000 in the September 27 week to 287,000, pulling down the 4-week average by a sizable 4,250 to 294,750 which is nearly 10,000 below the month-ago comparison. Continuing claims confirm the improvement. In data that lag by a week, continuing claims for the September 20 week fell 45,000 to a new recovery low of 2.398 million with the 4-week average down 20,000 to a new recovery low of 2.441 million.