Initial jobless claims are trending slightly and steadily lower

Despite a give-back rise in the latest week, initial jobless claims are trending slightly and steadily lower as are continuing claims. Initial claims did rise 12,000 in the September 20 week but follow only a slightly upward revised 35,000 plunge in the prior week which, importantly, was the sample week for the government's monthly employment report. The 4-week average is down 1,250 against both the prior week and the month-ago week.

The latest for continuing claims, which lag by a week and which now match the sample week for the September employment report, did rise 7,000 to 2.439 million but the 4-week average is down a very sizable 23,000 to 2.460 million and a new recovery low. A sample-week to sample-week comparison of the 4-week average against the August sample week shows an 89,000 drop. The unemployment rate for insured workers is holding at a recovery low of 1.8 percent.

There are no special factors in this report, one that points to improvement for the September employment report.

Initial jobless claims fell a very steep 36,000 to a much lower-than-expected level of 280,000 in the September 13 week, which is the same week as the government's sample period for the September employment report. This is the second lowest level of the recovery. The 4-week average fell 4,750 to 299,500 which is among the lowest levels of the recovery and was down 1,500 from the 4-week average in the August sample week. In a confirmation of improvement, continuing claims also continued to move lower.