Durable Goods Orders Fall Back In August After July Surge

Durables orders fell back in August, coming off July's surge in aircraft orders. But the core was healthy in August. New factory orders for durables dropped a monthly 18.2 percent, following a spike of 22.5 percent in July. Market expectations were for a 17.1 percent fall. Transportation fell a monthly 42.0 percent in August, following a 73.3 percent jump the month before.

Excluding transportation, durables orders rebounded 0.7 percent, following a decline of 0.5 percent in July. Analysts projected a 0.8 percent gain for August.

Within transportation, nondefense aircraft fell a monthly 74.3 percent, following a 315.6 percent spike in July with both swings essentially reflecting Boeing aircraft orders. Defense aircraft orders slipped 0.6 percent, following a 31.7 percent drop in July. Motor vehicle orders have been moderately volatile but healthy on average, decreasing 6.4 percent after a 10.0 percent boost the prior month.

Outside of transportation, major industries seeing a gain in the latest month were fabricated metals, machinery, computers & electronics, electrical equipment, and "other." Declines were posted for primary metals.

Orders for equipment investment made a healthy comeback in August. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rebounded 0.6 percent in August, following a dip of 0.2 percent the month before. Shipments of this series edged up 0.1 percent but followed a strong 1.9 percent gain in July.

Recent durables orders have shown record volatility. On average, durables orders point to moderate upward momentum in manufacturing.

Durable goods orders soared in July due to aircraft orders but otherwise came off a moderately strong core number in June. New factory orders for durables soared a monthly 22.6 percent in July, following a 2.7 percent boost in June. Excluding transportation, durables orders slipped 0.7 percent, following a 3.0 boost in June. Transportation spiked a monthly 74.1 percent after rising 2.2 percent in June. Nondefense aircraft (Boeing) surged 317.3 percent (that is not a typo) after gaining 11.2 percent in June. Another but more moderate positive was motor vehicle orders which gained 7.3 percent, following a 0.9 percent rise in June. Defense aircraft fell 29.1 percent in July, following a rise of 9.5 percent the month before. Outside of transportation, gains were limited.