The Business News Week Ahead

A week that is expected to be capped by a very strong gain for US payrolls opens with July updates from Japan that are expected to show limited Covid effects: retail sales on Monday followed by unemployment and industrial production on Tuesday. A round of German updates will also highlight the week, beginning on Monday with consumer prices and then unemployment on Tuesday, both reports for August, and on Wednesday with retail sales for July. Expectations here are uneven as they are for Switzerland whose leading indicator will kick off the week on Monday followed late in the week by August consumer prices and second-quarter GDP. China’s PMIs could have outsized market impact if either the official CFLP, posted Tuesday, or the Caixan, posted Wednesday, slump further and dip below the breakeven 50 level to indicate outright contraction for the country’s manufacturing sector. Employment won’t be the only market-moving indicator posted in the US with consumer confidence on Tuesday, where a deep decline is expected, and ISM manufacturing on Wednesday where strong growth is the constant theme. Econoday's call for August nonfarm payrolls is 740,000 in what would follow 943,000 and 938,000 gains in July and June. Also of note will be August consumer prices from France and the Eurozone on Tuesday, first estimates for second-quarter GDP from India and Canada on Tuesday and the second quarter’s first GDP estimate from Australia on Wednesday.