Consumers expect short-term inflation, income and spending to rise: NY Fed

• Consumer expectations for short-term inflation, income, and spending continue to rise as they become more confident that they won't lose their jobs or become unemployed, according to the New York Fed's June 2021 Survey of Consumer Expectations.
• Unemployment expectations and the perceived likelihood of job loss both reach new series' lows.
• Median inflation expectations increased 0.8 percentage points in June to 4.8% at the one-year horizon, reaching a new series high, but remained unchanged at 3.6% at the three-year horizon, supporting the Fed's "transitory" inflation thesis.
  
• Median year-ahead home price change expectations remained unchanged at 6.2% in June, "substantially" higher than its 12 -month trailing average of 3.7%, according to the Survey.
• The median one-year ahead expected earnings growth increased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6% in June, its highest reading since February 2020.
• Unemployment expectations improve as the mean perceived probability of losing one's job in the next year fell from 12.6% to 10.9%, reaching a new series low, while the mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months increased by 0.2 percentage points to 54.2%, its highest reading since Feb. 2020.
• The median expected year-ahead household income growth increased to 3% in June from 2.8% in the prior month, while household spending increases 0.2 percentage points to 5.2%, a new series high.
• Perceptions of credit access compared with a year ago slightly improved. However, expectations for future credit availability declined as more respondents expect it'll be harder to obtain credit next year.
• The mean perceived probability that U.S stock prices will be higher a year from now fell 0.5 percentage points to 40.2%, staying below its 2020 average of 44.3%.