U.S. leading indicators in-line with forecast

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased by 1.3 percent in May to 114.5 (2016 = 100), following a 1.3 percent increase in April and a 1.4 percent increase in March.

“After another large improvement in May, the U.S. LEI now stands above its previous peak reached in January 2020 (112.0), suggesting that strong economic growth will continue in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Strengths among the leading indicators were widespread, with initial claims for unemployment insurance making the largest positive contribution to the index; housing permits made this month’s only negative contribution. The   Conference Board now forecasts real GDP growth in Q2 could reach 9 percent (annualized), with year-over-year economic growth reaching 6.6 percent for 2021.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.4 percent in May to 105.1 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in April and a 1.3 percent increase in March.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. decreased by 2.2 percent in May to 103.0 (2016 = 100), following a 3.0 percent increase in April and 4.2 percent decrease in March.