The Business News Week Ahead

The Federal Reserve announcement on Wednesday will anchor the week, specifically Jerome Powell's press conference and his reaction to both this month's rise in long-term interest rates and the deteriorating conditions in the US jobs market. Thursday's initial claims data, after two successive weeks in the 900,000 zone, will update the very latest conditions in US employment. German unemployment data, which have been remarkably stable during the pandemic, will be posted on Friday while the labour market report from the UK will be one of Tuesday's highlights as will US consumer confidence. Confidence reports will also include two from Germany: Ifo data from manufacturers on Monday and consumer data from GfK on Wednesday. Inflation data have been mixed though some indicators have been showing pressure; the week's data for this category include quarterly consumer prices from Australia on Wednesday, January's CPI flash from Germany on Thursday, and fourth-quarter employment costs in the US on Friday. Fourth-quarter GDP reports are backward looking of course but important nevertheless, especially for policy makers who have to gauge whether additional stimulus needs to be added. GDP from the US will be posted on Thursday with French and German GDP on Friday as well as November GDP from Canada also on Friday. Japan will update its own supply and demand status with retail sales on Thursday and industrial production on Friday; both are expected to be down. Other market-moving news include US durable goods orders on Wednesday and the latest on capital goods demand, which has been a US strength, as well as US goods trade on Thursday where deep deficits, especially with China, have been a prominent US weakness.