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Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Jobless claims tumble 15,000 to 213,000 and fall back near postrecession low

The numbers: The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits in the week before Thanksgiving fell sharply, putting jobless claims back near historic lows and signaling ongoing strength in the U.S. labor market.

Initial jobless claims declined by 15,000 to 213,000 in the seven days ended Nov. 23, the government said Wednesday. The report came out a day earlier due to the holiday on Thursday.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast new claims to total 220,000 after seasonal adjustments.

What happened: Jobless claims are often herky-jerky during the holiday season that begins in November, a month that includes Veteran's  Day and Thanksgiving.

Shifting dates of Thanksgiving in particular can play havoc on the government’s efforts to adjust the data for seasonal swings in employment. That’s what looks to have happened this month.
By and large, jobless claims have ranged around 220,000 or less for most of the year.


The monthly average of new claims nationwide, meanwhile, fell by 1,500 to 219,750. The four-week average gives a more stable view of the labor market than the more volatile weekly number.

The number of people already collecting unemployment benefits, known as continuing claims, declined by 57,000 to 1.64 million. These claims are still near the lowest level since the early 1970s.

Big picture: Jobless claims had climbed to a five-month high just ahead of the holiday season, but most of the increase appeared to be tied to the government’s seasonal adjustments. The GM strike and major wildfires in California may have also played a role.

Yet there’s little evidence that layoffs are on the rise or that the economy is getting any weaker.
Look for more ups and downs in jobless claims. Employment often gyrates in November and December as companies take on temporary help to cope with a busy time of the year.

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