FHFA House Price Index Rises Solidly

The FHFA house price index rose a solid 0.4 percent in November that hits the high end of Econoday's consensus range. October is revised 1 tenth higher and is also at a 0.4 percent monthly gain with the year-on-year rates at 5.8 percent for both November and October. These results are likely to lift forecasts for next week's Case-Shiller data where early estimates were calling for very subdued November gains.

A clear shift in regional strength is underway in both FHFA and Case-Shiller data with the West fading and pockets of price traction appearing elsewhere. Year-on-year growth for the Pacific region in FHFA's report is only 4.8 percent which is down 9 tenths from October and nearly half the rate at mid-year. The Mountain region is up 7.4 percent for a 1.3 percentage point decline from October and a 2.1 point decline from September. In contrast, the East South Central, at 7.3 percent, is up 2.4 points in the month with the Middle Atlantic, usually the weakest region in this report, up 1.4 points to a suddenly respectable 4.8 percent.

Today's report is a tangible positive for the housing sector where good news, actually any news at all given the government shutdown, has been growing scarce.