Case-Shiller Home Price Index Shows Slight Gain

Home price appreciation began to flatten in the Spring last year but then showed a little life late in the summer. But Case-Shiller indications for November aren't pointing to renewed acceleration as the 20-city adjusted index managed only a 0.3 percent gain which is 1 tenth lower than Econoday's consensus and 1 tenth lower than October. Year-on-year growth at 4.7 percent is down 3 tenths from October and a 3-1/2 year low.

Price trouble in the West, formally the strongest region by far for price traction, is an unwelcome feature of this report as well as FHFA house price data released last week. Both LA and San Diego were flat in the month with perennial leaders San Francisco and Seattle down 0.5 percent and 0.3 percent. Yet Phoenix, up 0.7 percent, and Las Vegas, up 0.5 percent, are still very strong and are one and two of the 20 cities for year-on-year rates, at 12.1 percent for Las Vegas and 8.1 for Phoenix.

Northeast names, long dormant, continue to show some life especially New York City up 0.9 percent the last two months and up 0.7 percent the month before that. Year-on-year, though, New York is up only 3.5 percent with Washington DC at the bottom at only 2.7 percent appreciation. Near the bottom is San Diego at 3.3 percent.

The price trouble in the West is a reminder of bubble warnings in the region over the last several years. Whether this weakness begins to sap strength in other regions is a developing question for the housing sector.