The Business News Week Ahead

The federal funds projection, part of the quarterly FOMC forecasts, will not only dominate the week's news but will define the future framework of monetary policy, specifically how much, if at all, the Federal Reserve expects to raise rates next year. Housing data will dominate the pre-FOMC build up beginning on Monday with the housing market index which in the prior report posted one its most sudden and dramatic reversals on record. Posted on Tuesday will be housing starts and permits which have been falling the last six months followed Wednesday morning by existing home sales which, despite a rare gain in the prior report, are perhaps the year's biggest data disappointment of all. For Wednesday's FOMC statement, an incremental rate hike is the wide expectation with FOMC forecasts also published followed by Jerome Powell's press conference. Jobs data return to focus in Thursday's jobless claims data which, after falling back to historic lows, will track the sample week of the December employment report. Durable goods will open Friday's slate and are expected to show a sharp rebound followed at mid-morning by personal income and outlays where November's spending data will offer a revealing input for fourth-quarter GDP.