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Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Home Prices Rise As Expected: Case Shiller

Home price traction improved in October based on Case-Shiller's 20-city adjusted index which rose an as-expected 0.4 percent. Despite the gain, the yearly rate edged 2 tenths lower to 5.0 percent which is the lowest reading in two years.

Showing sudden life are Boston which rose 0.7 percent in October and New York, up 0.7 percent for a second straight month. Seattle has turned negative, down 0.3 percent for the fourth straight monthly decline with Portland and Denver, two former high fliers, up only 0.2 percent in October.

Las Vegas continues to post outsized gains, up 0.8 percent in October for by far the best yearly rate at 12.8 percent. Second best in the yearly rate is San Francisco at 7.9 percent with Washington, at 2.9 percent, and New York, at 3.1 percent, bringing up the rear.

Revisions to the adjusted index include a sharp 4 tenths upward revision to September which now stands at a 0.7 percent gain but is nearly offset by a 3 tenths downward revision to August which is now at a 0.2 percent decline. The revisions are largely tied to changes in seasonal adjustments as revisions to the unadjusted index are minor with September's monthly reading holding unchanged at no change and the year-on-year reading revised 1 tenth higher to 5.2 percent. August's unadjusted monthly reading is unrevised at no change with the yearly rate revised 1 tenth higher to 5.6 percent.

Today's report is mixed but still positive for a housing sector where economic data have been clearly negative. The results hint perhaps at a better-than-expected gain for tomorrow's FHFA report which will be released as scheduled (FHFA is not affected by the government closure).

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