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Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Existing Home Sales Show Some Life

Existing home sales showed some life in November, up 1.9 percent to a 5.320 million annualized rate for the best showing in three months that just tops Econoday's consensus range. Still the 3-month average, which is important to watch given the volatility of housing statistics, is down for a 7th straight month though only slightly, at 5.230 million.

Single-family resales and condo resales showed similar traction in November, up 1.9 percent for the former to a 4.710 million rate and up 1.7 percent for the latter to 610,000.

But the overall year-on-year rate shows how weak conditions have been, at minus 7.0 percent for the 9th straight month of contraction and the deepest contraction since early in the recovery in May 2011.

But there's good news for home sellers in the report that includes price traction as the median rose 1.0 percent in the month to $257,700 which is up 4.2 percent from a year ago in a rate, however, that does look rich compared to the sales decline.

For buyers and selection on the market, there's bad news in supply which is down sharply, 5.9 percent lower at 1.740 million resales on the market. Relative to sales, supply is at 3.9 months for the lowest reading since March.

Despite weaknesses the story of November's report is positive especially given the run of weakness in housing data especially on the new home side of the market. By region, the Northeast and Midwest posted mid-single digit monthly gains with the South in the low digits. The West, posting a mid-single digit decline, has been lagging other regions.

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