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Monday, December 24, 2018

Chicago National Activity Index Stronger In November

The national activity index rose to 0.22 in November vs a sharply downward revised October which is now unchanged vs an initial 0.24. The 3-month average stands at 0.12, down from a downward revised 0.23 in October.

Strength in November is led by production-related indicators which contributed 0.08 to the month's score vs negative 0.09 in October. The gain here is tied to jumps in utility and mining output that offset no change in manufacturing production.

Also helping November were sales, orders & inventories which contributed 0.09 points vs October's minus 0.02. Here the gain is tied to increased acceleration in the new orders index of the ISM's manufacturing report.

Employment-related indicators contributed 0.10 points vs 0.15 in October reflecting November's slower growth in nonfarm payrolls. Personal consumption & housing indicators pulled the index down by 0.05 vs October's negative 0.04.

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