First Time Jobless Claims Rise 9K

There are no special factors to explain away a noticeable rise in initial jobless claims including a sizable upward revision to the prior week. Initial claims came in at 224,000 in the November 17 week which is 9,000 above Econoday's consensus and outside Econoday's consensus range. The prior week is revised 5,000 higher to 221,000.

The November 17 week is also the sample week for the October employment report and a comparison with the sample week of the September employment report is not favorable. The average, currently at 218,500, is up 6,750 from mid-month September which points to slight moderation in labor conditions. These are the highest showings for initial claims in three months.

Continuing claims have also been showing upward movement, that is in the November 3 week when they jumped 40,000. In the latest data, which are for the November 10 week, continuing claims did slip back 2,000 but the 4-week average still climbed, up a sharp 16,000 to 1.453 million. The unemployment rate moved up to 1.2 percent in the prior reporting week which is where it held in the latest week.

This report offers definitive data on the labor market and is pointing to a less favorable monthly employment report for October, one that will follow the unusual strength of September which isn't likely, based at least on claims, to be repeated.