Empire State Manufacturing Survey Shows Increasing Strength

In contrast to the softening in this morning's Philly Fed report, the sample for Empire State is reporting increasing strength in this month's activity. November's headline index rose 2.2 points to a 23.3 level that exceeds Econoday's high estimate.

New orders fell back sharply in the Philly data but not in this report, at 20.4 for only a 2.1 point slowing from October. But unfilled orders, like the Philly report, proved soft coming in unchanged but still better than the 8.4 point contraction in October. And unlike Philly, the 6-month outlook improved, up 4.6 points to a strong 33.6.

Inventories are building, hiring increased, and shipments rose 1.7 points to a very strong 28.0. Like Philly Fed, price data are mixed with input costs very elevated at 44.5 for a 2.5 point gain though pass through to customers eased very slightly, down 1.2 points to 13.1.

This report together with the Philly Fed data point to consistent but not accelerating conditions for the nation's factory activity in November. Yet manufacturing has been a leading sector for the economy and looks to end 2018 on a clearly positive note.