Consumer Confidence Index Holding Near All-Time High

The consumer confidence index, at 135.7 in November, continues to hold in the mid-130s area and not far from the all-time high of 144.7 reached in 2000. November's strength is in the present situation which is a favorable indication for holiday spending, at 172.7 for an 8 tenths gain from October. Expectations, however, eased by 4.1 points to 111.0 as optimism over future job and income prospects is easing slightly.

Turning back to the present situation, a very favorable sign for next week's November employment report comes from jobs-hard-to-get which fell a sizable 1.2 percentage points to 12.2 percent. Also positive is a greater share saying jobs are currently plentiful, at 46.6 percent for a 1.2 percentage point gain.

Inflation expectations are on a subdued climb, up 1 tenth for a second straight month to 4.9 percent which for this reading is still low. Interest rate expectations continue to edge higher, up 1.2 points to 74.4 percent of the sample saying they will climb over the next 12 months. Higher rates mean higher mortgage rates which aren't helping buying plans for homes which are steady at a modest 6.4 percent of the sample.

Ongoing trouble in the stock market isn't really hurting this report much though the percentage of bulls is noticeably down, at 35.0 percent vs 43.6 percent in October. Yet it's the strength of the jobs market that is the most important factor in the Conference Board's report, one that continues to point to unusually favorable conditions for the economy including for the nation's retailers.