The Economics News Week Ahead

In follow up to the August acceleration in average hourly earnings, inflation data roll out in force in the coming week. Producer prices will be posted on Wednesday but are not expected to show resumed pressure nor are import & export prices on Friday. Some headline pressure for consumer prices, data out on Thursday, is expected but not for the core. Also released in the week will be September updates on inflation expectations, first on Wednesday with business data from the Atlanta Fed and then Friday with consumer data from the University of Michigan. JOLTS will be Tuesday's highlight and will offer another look at the labor market, here from the perspective of job openings. The Beige Book will be posted on Wednesday ahead of the month-end FOMC and yet another subdued economic assessment from this very subdued report can't be ruled out. Two major reports will end the week on Friday: retail sales where another solid month is the call and industrial production where only limited bounce-back strength is expected. Unless the data prove surprising, it will be a week of moderate-to-solid overall strength with, despite the August jump in hourly earnings, only limited inflationary pressures.

Monday

Consumer Credit for July

Consensus Forecast: $14.0 billion

Consensus Range: $12.5 to $15.5 billion

Rising growth of $14.0 billion is expected for consumer credit in July, after posting a moderate increase of $10.2 billion in a June result that showed a slight decrease for revolving credit.

Tuesday

Small Business Optimism Index for August

Consensus Forecast: 108.2

Consensus Range: 103.5 to 108.5 

The small business optimism index is expected to firm to 108.2 in August vs July's 107.9 which was the second highest reading in 45 years of data. Strength in July was centered in job openings and the outlook for the economy.

JOLTS: Job Openings for July

Consensus Forecast: 6.665 million

Consensus Range: 6.600 to 6.900 million

Forecasters see job openings in July, at a consensus 6.665 million, holding steady near June's total of 6.662 million. This report has been signaling strong demand for labor.

Wednesday

PPI-FD for August

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%

Consensus Range: -0.1% to 0.3%

PPI-FD Less Food & Energy

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.3%

PPI-FD Less Food, Energy, & Trade Services

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.3%

An incremental 0.2 percent monthly increase is expected for the August producer price headline following a 0.3 percent increase in July. When excluding food and energy and also when excluding food, energy and trade services, 0.2 percent gains are also expected for both. Despite the low consensus, trade services have been on the rise in this report reflecting price pressures for wholesalers and retailers.

Beige Book

Prepared for the FOMC Meeting on September 25 & 26

The long refrain of "modest-to-moderate" economic growth returned in July's Beige Book which cited wide concerns over cost pressures and supply dislocations tied to tariffs. But this contrasted sharply with the assessment of the FOMC statement that followed two weeks later, which described both economic activity and household spending as strong.

Thursday

Consumer Price Index for August

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%

Consensus Range: 0.0% to 0.4%

Consumer Price Index

Consensus Forecast, Year-on-Year Change: 2.8%

Consensus Range: 2.7% to 3.0%

CPI Core, Less Food & Energy

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.3%

CPI Core, Less Food & Energy

Consensus Forecast, Year-on-Year Change: 2.3%

Consensus Range: 2.3% to 2.5%

Businesses may be complaining loudly about high costs but prices at the consumer level have been very stable. Forecasters see the consumer price index rising a moderate 0.3 percent in August following only a 0.1 percent increase in July. The consensus for the ex-food ex-energy core rate is only a 0.2 percent gain. Year-on-year rates for August are seen at 2.8 percent overall, vs 2.9 percent in July, and 2.3 percent for the core which would be unchanged from July.

Initial Jobless Claims for September 8 week

Consensus Forecast: 210,000

Consensus Range: 208,000 to 219,000

Initial claims are expected to come in at 210,000 in the September 8 week vs 203,000 in the prior week which along with the 4-week average at 209,500 hit 50-year lows. State estimates were unusually heavy in the prior week which raise the risk of significant revisions.

Treasury Budget for August

Consensus Forecast: -$166.5 billion

Consensus Range: -$183.0 billion to -$91.8 billion

Individual tax receipts are up, corporate tax receipts are down and spending is on the rise. Nine months into the government's fiscal year, the year-to-date deficit to July was 16 percent deeper than the prior year. Econoday's consensus for the August Treasury statement is a monthly deficit of $166.5 billion.

Friday

Retail Sales for August

Consensus Forecast: 0.4%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.6%

Retail Sales Ex-Autos

Consensus Forecast: 0.5%

Consensus Range: 0.3% to 0.7%

Retail Sales Ex-Autos Ex-Gas

Consensus Forecast: 0.4%

Consensus Range: 0.3% to 0.5%

Retail Sales Control Group (Ex-Food Services, Ex-Autos, Ex-Gas, Ex-Building Materials)

Consensus Forecast: 0.4%

Consensus Range: 0.4% to 0.4%

Another solid month for retail sales is the expectation for August where the consensus is calling for a 0.4 percent gain vs 0.5 percent in July. Excluding autos, a gain of 0.5 percent is the call with ex-auto ex-gas at a consensus 0.4 percent and control group sales also at 0.4 percent.

Import Prices for August

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: -0.1%

Consensus Range: -0.4% to 0.2%

Export Prices

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%

Consensus Range: -0.2% to 0.4%

Import price pressures were on a tariff-boosted rise before easing back abruptly in both June and July. And with oil soft, forecasters see August import prices slipping 0.1 percent after no change in July. Export prices for August are seen up 0.2 percent vs July's 0.5 percent decline.

Industrial Production for August

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.4%

Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.6%         

Manufacturing Production

Consensus Forecast,  Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.7%

Capacity Utilization Rate

Consensus Forecast: 78.3%

Consensus Range: 78.0% to 78.5%

A bounce back is expected for industrial production, at a consensus increase of 0.4 percent in August vs July's very soft 0.1 percent gain that reflected a monthly downswing in mining, which has otherwise been very strong, and a third month of weakness for utilities. The manufacturing component is not expected to show much strength, at a consensus 0.2 percent rise vs a 0.3 percent gain in July. Pressures on capacity utilization are expected to tighten 2 tenths to 78.3 percent.

Business Inventories for July

Consensus Forecast,  Month-to-Month Change: 0.5%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.6%

A large 0.5 percent rise is the consensus for business inventories in July, a constructive build that would help narrow the gap with underlying sales which have been very strong.

Consumer Sentiment Index, Preliminary September

Consensus Forecast: 97.0

Consensus Range: 95.5 to 99.0

The consumer sentiment index is expected to move higher in the preliminary reading for September, at a consensus 97.0 vs 96.2 in an August report that showed easing strength in the assessment of current conditions. The August report also showed incremental pressures in inflation expectations tied to expectations for robust economic growth.