Economics And Business News Week Ahead

Factory indications for September get rolling on Monday with another very strong report expected from Empire State's sample and with significant bounce-back strength the call for Thursday's Philly Fed report. Housing has been the economy's weak point and not much strength is expected for Tuesday's housing market index nor for Wednesday's housing starts and permits data where only limited gains from sagging levels are the expectations. Existing home sales on Thursday will round out the week's housing data and here too forecasters see no more than modest improvement. The PMI composite winds up the week on Friday in data that showed visible slowing in August with moderate acceleration the call for September.

Monday

Empire State Index for September

Consensus Forecast: 23.0

Consensus Range: 20.0 to 25.0

New orders have been heavy with an unusually large build in backlog orders during August both pointing to another month of robust strength for the Empire State index. Econoday's consensus for September is 23.0 vs August's 25.6.

Tuesday

Housing Market Index for September

Consensus Forecast: 67

Consensus Range: 66 to 70 

Held down by lack of construction workers as well as high construction costs, the housing market index is not expected to show much strength in September. Econoday's consensus is 67 for September which would be unchanged from August which was the lowest reading since September last year.

Wednesday

Housing Starts for August

Consensus Forecast, Annualized Rate: 1.240 million

Consensus Range: 1.171 to 1.253 million

Building Permits

Consensus Forecast: 1.320 million

Consensus Range: 1.260 to 1.324 million

Bounce-back strength for housing starts and extending strength for building permits are the expectations for August, at a 1.240 million annualized rate for starts, compared to 1.168 million in July, and at 1.320 million for permits vs July's 1.303 million (revised from an initial 1.311 million). This report had been solid before showing striking slowing, especially in starts, in both June and July.

Current Account Deficit for Second Quarter

Consensus Forecast: -$104.0 billion

Consensus Range: -$122.0 to -$102.0 billion

Boosted by sharp improvement in net exports, the current account deficit is expected to fall to a consensus $104.0 in the second quarter vs $124.1 billion in the first quarter.

Thursday

Initial Jobless Claims for September 15 week

Consensus Forecast: 210,000

Consensus Range: 205,000 to 210,000

Initial jobless claims will track the mid-month sample period of the monthly employment report and will offer key hints on what to expect for payroll growth and the unemployment rate in September. Initial claims are expected to come in at 210,000 in the September 15 week vs 204,000 in the prior week which along with the 4-week average at 208,000 hit 50-year lows for a second straight week. Continuing claims are at 46-year lows.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for September

Consensus Forecast: 19.2

Consensus Range: 13.9 to 21.1

Re-acceleration to 19.2 is the consensus for September's Philly Fed index which slowed very sharply in August to 11.9 and near a 2-year low. This index first slowed sharply in June, ending what had been a long run of exceptional growth rates.

Existing Home Sales for August

Consensus Forecast, Annualized Rate: 5.360 million

Consensus Range: 5.290 to 5.460 million

Expected to end four straight months of slowing, existing home sales are seen rising but only modestly, to a consensus 5.360 million annualized rate vs July's very disappointing 5.340 million. Resales of both single-family homes and condos have been showing similar weakness.

Index of Leading Economic Indicators for August

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.5%

Consensus Range: 0.3% to 0.6%

A surge in ISM orders, gains in the stock market and declines in unemployment claims all point to another solid gain for August's index of leading economic indicators. Econoday's consensus is a 0.5 percent increase vs July's very strong 0.6 percent rise.

Friday

PMI Composite for September Flash

Consensus Forecast: 55.1

Consensus Range: 53.8 to 55.8

PMI Manufacturing

Consensus Forecast: 55.0

Consensus Range: 53.8 to 55.2

PMI Services

Consensus Forecast: 55.0

Consensus Range: 53.6 to 56.2

Moderation was the clear signal from the PMIs in August with many indications showing some of their lowest results of the year. For September's flashes, forecasters expect modest re-acceleration in all the readings: PMI composite at a consensus 55.1; PMI manufacturing at 55.0; and PMI services at 55.0.