Consumer sentiment ends September at a very healthy 100.1, down slightly
from 100.8 at mid-month and sharply higher from August's 96.2. Lower
income households lead September's gain to offset downward pull from
higher income households in a result which suggests, according to the
report, that the expansion has now benefited nearly all population
groups.
Income optimism across all groups is the strongest since
2004 and is getting a lift from declining inflation expectations and,
with this, the prospect of rising spending power. And despite concerns
over tariffs, which were cited by nearly 1/3 of the sample, consumers
see economic growth continuing and unemployment falling. Note that among
those who cite tariffs as a concern, confidence is generally lower.
Though
low inflation expectations may be a positive for income prospects, they
nevertheless could be a concern for the Federal Reserve if expectations
begin to substantially erode. Year-ahead inflation expectations are
down 1 tenth this month at 2.7 percent with 5-year expectations up 1
tenth at 2.5 percent.
Other readings in today's report include a
115.2 level for current conditions, vs 110.3 in August and 116.1 at
mid-month September, and 90.5 for expectations vs August's 87.1 and 91.1
at mid-month.
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