Headline strength is spectacular in the consumer confidence report yet
the details won't be lifting expectations for the September employment
report. Confidence shot up to 138.4 to easily surpass Econoday's
consensus range in a reading that's the highest in 18 years and now
within shot of the all-time record of 144.7 hit during the dotcom
sensation of 2000.
The less spectacular result comes from the
consumer's assessment of the labor market where those who say jobs are
hard to get increased, not decreased, by a sizable 1.1 percentage points
to 13.2 percent. This is a very closely watched reading by forecasters
and is only marginally offset by a 3.4 percentage point rise to 45.7
percent in those who say jobs are currently plentiful. Another positive
is strength in the assessment of business conditions which helped lift
the present situation component by 3 tenths to 173.1.
Turning to
the assessment of future conditions, those who see their income
improving over the next six months declined 2.8 points to 22.6 percent
which is offset in part by a 4 tenths decline to 6.5 percent for those
who see their income falling. More clearly positive are the assessments
of future labor and business conditions which made for a 6.0 point gain
in the expectations index to 115.3.
Buying plans for autos are
very strong, up 4 tenths to 13.4 percent, and home buying plans are also
positive, up 3 tenths to 6.6 percent in what is badly needed good news
for the nation's Realtors and home builders. Buying plans for major
appliances are strong but down slightly at 52.9 percent.
Sentiment
in the stock market is on the rise with bulls up 2.7 percentage points
to 42.5 percent and bears decreasing by 1.3 points to 22.4 percent. On
interest rates, 68.2 percent see them moving higher and only 6.8 percent
lower which is of note given prospects for a Federal Reserve rate hike
tomorrow.
This report isn't quite as strong as it looks but it is
very very strong and follows the mid-month jump in the consumer
sentiment index to suggest a pivot higher this month in consumer
spirits. This hints at a pivot higher as well for consumer spending.
No comments:
Post a Comment