ADP: October Private Payroll Estimate 147K

ADP sees significant softening for Friday's employment report, estimating October private payrolls will come in at 147,000. This compares with the Econoday consensus of 170,000 and a low estimate of 150,000. A 147,000 print would also be far under ADP's September estimate which has been revised significantly higher, to 202,000 from an initial 154,000 (the initial government reading for September's private payrolls was 167,000). Though ADP's revision does point to an upward revision to September's data in Friday's report, the October estimate is soft and could further lower expectations for a rate hike at today's FOMC meeting.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
ADP's employment estimate for September, like that for August, was less than accurate as a gauge for the government's data. ADP called for a sharp weakening in private payroll growth which in fact rose sharply. Still, this report's 2016 track record is favorable. Forecasters see ADP's call coming in at 170,000 for September, sizably stronger than ADP's August call for 154,000.