First Time Jobless Claims Rise 6K, Still Very Low

The labor market remains solid and unemployment claims very low. Initial claims in the February 27 week did edge 6,000 higher to 278,000 but the 4-week average is down 1,750 to a 270,250 level that, significantly, is nearly 15,000 below the month-ago trend. This comparison offers a positive signal for February's employment conditions.

Continuing claims, where data lag by a week, remain near historic lows. In data for the February 20 week, continuing claims rose 3,000 to 2.257 million with the 4-week average unchanged and also at 2.257 million where a comparison with the month-ago trend shows little change. The unemployment rate for insured workers remains unchanged at 1.7 percent.

There are no special factors in today's report, one that should firm expectations for strength in tomorrow's monthly employment report where the Econoday consensus is calling for a 190,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
The February 13 week, which was the sample week for the monthly employment report, proved pivotal for initial jobless claims which fell sizably to 262,000 for the lowest reading since November. Since then, claims have climbed but only slightly with the Econoday consensus pointing to a very favorable 270,000 level in the February 27 week. Whatever the results, data in the latest report fall outside the mid-month sample period and will very likely have no impact on expectations for the February employment report.