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Thursday, October 1, 2015

Manufacturing Reports Show Opposite Trends

Markit's sample is still in the growth column but, relative to its past performance, is signaling trouble in the manufacturing sector. The manufacturing PMI inched 1 tenth higher to a final September reading of 53.1 vs 53.0 in the September flash and October final readings. These readings are all near a two-year low.

New orders and production are slowing as is employment which, at a two-year low, is now slowing sharply. Input prices, pulled down by lower commodity prices and strength in the dollar, continue to fall while final prices, in a sign seen in many other September reports, showing its weakest result in three years.

Markit's sample is blaming an uncertain global outlook for the slowing, specifically weakness in export sales, as well as generally cautious spending patterns among their clients.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Growth in the manufacturing PMI is expected to come in just moderately above 50, in line with the flash reading of 53.0 which was right in line with August. Export weakness is holding down order growth and hiring is beginning to slow. 

...meanwhile...

The ISM index, like nearly all other September indications, is pointing to trouble for the factory sector. At 50.2, the index is at its lowest point since May 2013. New orders, at 50.1, are at their lowest point since August 2012. Backlog orders, at a very low 41.5, are in their fourth month of contraction and won't be giving manufacturers much breathing room to keep up production. Export orders, at 46.5, are also in their fourth month of contraction and are a key factor behind the general weakness.

Production, at 51.8, continues to hold up better than orders but not by much and probably not for long given the weakness in orders. Input prices are in deep contraction at 38.0 which is the weakest reading since early in the year when oil prices broke down.

The headline reading, together with the manufacturing PMI reported earlier this morning, are still not pointing to contraction for the factory sector. But this is an anomaly tied to the limited sample sizes of these reports. Factory data in the government reports have been trending in slight contraction for the past year and today's reports point to the risk of accelerating contraction.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
The ISM manufacturing index has been signaling weakening conditions, the weakest for its sample since mid-2013. New orders have slowed markedly and export orders and backlog orders have been in contraction. Prices paid have been in deep contraction. The index is expected to edge even lower, down 1.0 point to 50.5.

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