The Week Ahead...

The big week is here but doesn't get underway until Tuesday with the retail sales report. Unusual strength in the report could alter the outlook for Thursday's FOMC announcement, as could surprise strength in Tuesday's industrial production report which, however, is expected to show weakness. Wednesday's CPI is the last chance for data to upend FOMC expectations. A 0.2 percent gain for the core CPI is expected but wouldn't be enough to lift rate-hike odds. Thursday's announcement will transfix the markets and will also include FOMC forecasts and the Chair's press conference. Other data Thursday will include housing starts & permits, the former seen down but the latter up, as well as weekly jobless claims where the sample week is the same as the sample week of the monthly employment report.