Consumer Sentiment Pops Up As Expected

Consumer sentiment popped up as expected from stock-market depression at mid-month, to 87.2 for final September from 85.7 for the flash. Still, September's final reading is the weakest since October last year. The expectations component, which tracks the jobs outlook, improved 1.2 points from mid-month to end September at 78.2 which is the lowest reading since September last year. The current conditions component, which tracks ongoing strength in the jobs market, rose 9 tenths to 101.2 for the lowest reading since October. Inflation expectations are unchanged from August but did tick 1 tenth lower from mid-month for both the 1-year outlook, at 2.8 percent, and the 5-year at 2.7 percent. This report is very soft but still a relief of sorts, suggesting that the worst effects of the recent market turmoil may have passed, at least assuming markets stabilize.

Recent History Of This Indicator: Consumer sentiment shook the outlook at mid-month, falling more than 6 points to 85.7 and highlighting the risk, later echoed by the FOMC, that troubles centered in China may be having early effects in the United States. Only modest recovery is expected for the final sentiment reading, at a consensus 87.1.