Consumer Confidence Is Inexplicably Rising

Consumer confidence was supposed to have fallen back this month as stock market losses took their effect. But instead confidence is inexplicably rising, to 103.0 in September which is 7 points over the consensus and 3 points over the top estimate. The gain is centered in the present situation component which hints at ongoing strength in the labor market and immediate strength in consumer spending. The present situation jumped more than 5 points to 121.1 which is, by far and away, the best reading of the recovery, since September 2007.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
The consumer confidence report showed odd strength in August at 101.5 for a 10.5 point surge, boosted especially by unusual strength in the assessment of current job conditions. Forecasters see the index coming back sharply from August, to a consensus of 96.0. A decline for this index would be seen, at least to a degree, as a correction from the prior month's outsized gain and less perhaps as a material decline in confidence.