August
was a weak month for the economy, based on the national activity index
which came in at minus 0.41. The 3-month moving average is barely
positive, at plus 0.01.
August's downswing is tied largely to the
manufacturing component of the industrial production report which was
hit by a reversal in vehicle production following its July surge. But
employment, after boosting the index in July, was also weak in August.
The report's two other components, consumption & housing and
sales/orders/inventories, were both slightly negative.
This whole recovery has been softer than usual and indications of any pickup remain elusive.
Definition:
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index
designed to better gauge overall economic activity and inflationary
pressure.
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