Welcome!

Wednesday, August 5, 2015

Non-Manufacturing Indexes Show Strength

Service sector growth is accelerating, to 55.7 for Markit's July sample from a 5-month low of 54.8 in June. Strength in new orders leads the report along with a rise in backlogs. With gains in orders come gains in hiring which the report describes as "robust". But optimism in the 12-month outlook, perhaps rattled by the outlook for the global economy, is down for a second straight month to a 3-year low. Price news is mixed with cost pressures down amid complaints, however, of rising food prices and rising salaries.

The 54.8 headline is on the low side for this indicator but the comparison with June is still favorable for July.


Recent History Of This Indicator:
The services PMI is expected to end July at a very healthy 55.2. The flash report cited strength in new orders from both the consumer side and the business side with the latter offering one of the few hints of strength for business investment. A negative, however, was softness in the 12-month outlook in a reading that has since been confirmed on the consumer side with declines in the expectations components of both the consumer confidence and consumer sentiment reports. 

...meanwhile...

 ISM's non-manufacturing sample reports a giant surge of strength, to 60.3 for the July index and the highest reading in 10 years. The result far surpasses expectations where the high-end Econoday forecast was 57.5.

New orders, at 63.8, and backlog orders, at 54.0, both show substantial acceleration from June as do new export orders. Strong orders are boosting employment which, echoing this morning's earlier release of the Service PMI report, is robust, at 59.6 for one of the strongest readings on the books.

Breadth is very strong with 15 of 18 industries reporting composite growth in the month including gains for retail trade, transportation & warehousing, and construction. Mining is one of two reporting contraction.

The rise in export orders underscores the strength of the nation's trade surplus in services which, despite strength in the dollar, is getting a boost from foreign demand for technical and management services. The service sector appears to be rolling along fine and will likely continue to offset weakness in manufacturing.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
The ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to hold steady, at 56.2 for July vs a very solid 56.0 in June. This index has held solidly over 55 for the last year, underscoring the strength of the domestic economy which, against the tailwind for exports, has kept up GDP. The report's employment index, which slowed noticeably in June, always gets special attention ahead of the employment report.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Legal Shield

Pre-Paid Legal