Jobless Claims Steady

Jobless claims are steady at rock bottom lows and are pointing to continuing improvement on the unemployment side of the labor market. Initial claims came in at 277,000 in the August 15 week, up 4,000 from the prior week. The comparison of the August 15 week with the July 18 week, both the sample weeks for the monthly employment report, offers an early hint at what to expect for the August employment report. Here the comparison is negative, at 277,000 vs 255,000, but week-to-week data in July were heavily distorted by temporary layoffs for summertime factory retooling. A comparison of the 4-week averages, which smooths out week-to-week volatility, tells a different story, at 271,500 vs 278,500 to point to strength. Continuing claims, where data lag by a week, fell 24,000 in data for the August 8 week to 2.254 million. The 4-week average is 9,000 higher at 2.265 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers remains at a very low 1.7 percent. All these readings are very low indicating that employers, who may or may not be hiring, are definitely holding to employees. There were no special factors in the latest week.

Recent History Of This Indicator Initial jobless claims are expected to hold near record lows, at 270,000 in the August 15 week. The August 15 week is also the sample week for the monthly employment report which will add special scrutiny to the results.