Jobless Claims Still Low, But Trending Higher

Jobless claims data are low but still are still trending higher than a month ago in comparisons that do not point to further improvement for the monthly employment report. Initial claims did fall 3,000 in the December 6 week to 294,000 but the 4-week average, up slightly to 299,250, is still about 15,000 higher than in early November.

Continuing claims tell the same story, up a steep 142,000 to 2.514 million in lagging data for the November 29 week. This is the highest level since mid August. The 4-week average, up 28,000 to 2.386 million, is also up about 15,000 vs the month-ago comparison. The unemployment rate for insured workers ticked higher for the first time since late August, up 1 tenth to 1.9 percent.

There are no special factors in today's report, one that points to less momentum than expected in the labor market.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Initial jobless claims fell 17,000 in the November 29 week to a roughly as expected 297,000. But the prior week's spike was still elevating the 4-week average which rose 4,750 to a 299,000 level that is trending a very large 20,000 above the month ago trend. The November 22 week also was a tough week for continuing claims which are reported with a 1-week lag. Continuing claims in the week rose 39,000 to 2.362 million with the 4-week average up 1,000 to 2.355 million. But here the 4-week average was down 20,000 from the month-ago trend.