Jobless Claims Fall Back to Roughly as Expected

The prior week's spike proved to be a fluke as initial claims, which surged an upwardly revised 22,000 in the November 22 week, fell 17,000 in the November 29 week to a roughly as expected 297,000. But the prior spike is still elevating the 4-week average which rose 4,750 to a 299,000 level that is trending a very large 20,000 above the month ago trend.

The November 22 week also was a tough week for continuing claims which are reported with a 1-week lag. Continuing claims in the week rose 39,000 to 2.362 million with the 4-week average up 1,000 to 2.355 million. But here the 4-week average is down 20,000 from the month-ago trend. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at 1.8 percent. This rate had dipped to a recovery low of 1.7 percent in the initial data for the prior week which now, however, is revised 1 tenth higher.

There are no special factors in today's report, one that in sum, despite the rise in the 4-week average for initial claims, will confirm confidence in the health of the labor market going into tomorrow's monthly employment report.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Initial jobless claims spiked higher in the November 22, up 21,000 to 313,000 for the highest level since early September. There were no special factors to explain away the jump, one that if not reversed in coming weeks would mark a pivot higher for claims and a pivot lower for the jobs market. The 4-week average rose 6,250 to 294,000 which is the highest level since late September.