Planned Layoffs Rise Sharply, Payroll to Population Shows Minimal Change

Challenger's layoff count, at 51,183, rose sharply in October but from a 14-year low in September of 30,477. The count in October last year was 45,730. Layoff announcements were heavy across a number of industries in the latest month including retail, computer, pharmaceutical, and telecom.

...meanwhile...

October unadjusted Payroll to Population employment rate was 44.4 percent, down nominally from September (44.8 percent). Meanwhile, unemployment hit a four year low (6.2 percent) but workforce participation remained weak (66.6 percent). The employment rate percentage of Americans employed full time for an employer is still among the highest in any October since Gallup began tracking P2P in January 2010, exceeded only by the 45.7 percent in October 2012, the highest single estimate in Gallup's trend.

Workforce participation among U.S. adults declined slightly to 66.6 percent in October, from 67.2 percent in September. Workforce participation measures the percentage of adults 18 and older who are working or who are not working but are actively looking for work and are available for employment. The workforce participation rate has ranged narrowly between lows of 65.8 percent and highs of 68.5 percent since January 2010. However, workforce participation dropped below 67 percent in August 2013 and has mostly remained below that level since.

Surprisingly, the age group with the most consistent pattern of declining workforce participation is not "baby boomer" retirees but 35 to 49 year-olds, who should be in their prime working years. This age cohort has seen its workforce participation decline from an annual average of 84.0 percent in 2010 to 82.8 percent in 2013 and 82.2 percent so far in 2014. The oldest cohort, those aged 50 and older, actually showed mostly increasing workforce participation through 2013, and has measured lower participation only in 2014 to date, albeit lower than in any year since Gallup began measuring this.

Gallup's U.S. not-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell after a bump up to 6.6 percent in September, to 6.2 percent in October -- the lowest unemployment rate observed since Gallup began tracking it in January 2010. Unemployment has so far fallen farther in 2014 -- from 8.6 percent in January -- than in any of the previous four years. However, unemployment is generally at its lowest level in October of each year, so it is reasonable to expect unemployment to creep back up as the year ends. Tracking with unemployment, Gallup's measure of underemployment also hit a five year low in October, at 14.8 percent. Gallup's U.S. underemployment rate combines the percentage of adults in the workforce who are unemployed (6.2 percent) and those who are working part time but desire full time work (8.6 percent).