Jobless Claims Spike Higher

Initial jobless claims spiked higher in the November 22, up 21,000 to 313,000 for the highest level since early September. There are no special factors to explain away the jump, one that if not reversed in coming weeks would mark a pivot higher for claims and a pivot lower for the jobs market. The 4-week average rose 6,250 to 294,000 which is the highest level since late September.

A plus in the report is a continued decline for continuing claims which, in lagging data for the November 15 week, fell 17,000 to 2.316 million. The 4-week average is down 18,000 to 2.352 million. And there's extra good news as the unemployment rate for insured workers is down 1 tenth to 1.7 percent for the lowest level since November 2000.

But it won't be continuing claims that the markets will react to, it will be the spike in initial claims.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Initial jobless claims edged down in the November 15 week, 2,000 lower to 291,000, while the 4-week average edged up, 1,750 higher to 287,500. The November 15 week was the survey week for the November employment report and a comparison with the October survey week showed a 7,000 gain with the 4-week average up almost as much, at 6,250. This comparison won't be lifting estimates for the November report.