Housing Starts Continue Roller Coaster Ride

Housing starts numbers continue to oscillate. October weakness was in the multifamily component which swings sharply on a monthly basis. The single-family component may be gaining mild strength. Housing starts declined 2.8 percent after a 7.8 percent spike in September. The 1.009 million unit pace was up 7.8 percent on a year-ago basis. Market expectations were for 1.028 million units.

Multifamily starts swung sharply-dropping a monthly 15.4 percent in October, following a 14.9 percent surge the month before. Single-family starts gained 4.2 percent in both October and September.

Housing permits, however, showed momentum with a 4.8 percent gain in October after a 2.8 percent boost the month before. The 1.080 million unit pace was up 1.2 percent on a year-ago basis. Analysts projected 1.035 million units.

Multifamily permits jumped 10.0 percent in October, following a 6.4 percent gain in September. Single-family permits rose somewhat with a 1.4 percent increase after a 0.6 percent rise in September.

Housing data are oscillating but after yesterday's housing market index showing improvement, this sector may be slowly building strength-emphasis on slowly. Also, winter data are coming and they have very large seasonal factors. And if there is an atypically cold winter, that will affect the numbers.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Housing starts data continue to be volatile. Starts and permits rebounded in September after declines in August after sharp gains in July. Housing starts for September rebounded 6.3 percent after dropping 12.8 percent in August. September's pace of 1.017 million units topped market expectations for 1.010 million units and was up 17.8 percent on a year-ago basis. The multifamily component rebounded a monthly 16.7 percent after plunging 28.7 percent in August. The single-family component rose 1.1 percent in September, following a 2.0 percent decline the prior month. Building permits made a comeback, too. Permits increased 1.5 percent in September, following a 5.1 percent drop in August. September permits were up 2.5 percent on a year-ago basis.