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Friday, October 3, 2014

The Labor Market Improved in September...for the most part...

The labor market improved in September for the most part. Job growth topped expectations, The unemployment rate declined. However, wage inflation is oscillating but remaining on a low trajectory up.

Nonfarm payroll jobs gained 248,000, after a 180,000 rise in August and 243,000 increase in July. Net revisions for July and August were up a sharp 69,000. The median market forecast for September was for a 215,000 gain.

The unemployment rate declined to 5.9 percent from 6.1 percent in August. Expectations were for 6.1 percent.

Going back to the payroll report, private payrolls advanced 236,000 in September after a 175,000 boost in August. Expectations were for 215,000.

Goods-producing jobs jumped 29,000 in September after a 14,000 rise the month before. Manufacturing employment increased 4,000 in September, following a decrease of 4,000 in August. Motor vehicles and parts rebounded 3,000, after dipping 5,000 in August. Construction advanced 16,000 in each of the two latest months. Mining jumped 9,000 in September, following a 2,000 rise in August.

Private service-providing jobs jumped 207,000 after a 161,000 gain in August. Strength was seen in professional & business services and retail trade.

Average hourly earnings were unchanged in September after a 0.3 percent rise the month before. Average weekly hours ticked up to 34.6 hours versus 34.5 hours in August and expectations for 34.5 hours.

Overall, job growth improved while wage inflation remained soft. The Fed still has many options for policy.



Recent History Of This Indicator:
Nonfarm payroll employment for August was notably disappointing. But some commentators noted that August is a very revisable number with the data for the month frequently revised upwards. Payroll jobs rose only 142,000, after a 212,000 increase in July and 267,000 boost in June. The unemployment rate eased back to 6.1 percent from 6.2 percent in July. Expectations were for 6.1 percent. The "U-6" underemployment rate slipped to 12.0 percent from 12.2 percent in July. Going back to the payroll report, private payrolls rose 134,000 in August after a 213,000 gain in July. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent, improving over July's 0.1 percent. Average weekly hours were unchanged at 34.5 hours.

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