Initial Jobless Claims Rise 17K

Trends remain favorable though initial jobless claims did rise in the October 18 week, up 17,000 to 283,000 which is slightly better than the Econoday consensus for 285,000. The prior week, revised only 2,000 higher to 266,000, is a 14-year low. The 4-week average is also at a 14-year low, down 3,000 to 281,000.

A comparison with the September 13 week, which matches the survey periods for the October and September employment reports, points to little change. The latest week is up 2,000 from the September 13 week, which is only a small rise, while the 4-week average is also only slightly higher, up 1,250.

Continuing claims data are reported with a 1-week lag, October 11 in today's report. Continuing claims fell 38,000 to 2.351 million which is another 14-year low, as is the 4-week average, down 23,000 to 2.381 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is steady at a recovery low of 1.8 percent.

There are no special factors in today's report, one that won't be lifting expectations for the October employment report but nevertheless is very favorable for the economy.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Initial jobless claims in the October 11 week fell a stunning 23,000 to a 264,000 level that is not only the lowest of the recovery but is lowest since all the way back in April 2000. The decline pulls the 4-week average down 4,250 to 283,500 which is the lowest since June 2000 and is more than 15,000 below the month-ago trend. The BLS noted no special factors. Continuing claims, which are reported with a 1-week lag, rose 8,000 in the October 4 week from the prior week's recovery low to 2.389 million. But the 4-week average continues to make new recovery lows, down 10,000 to 2.404 million.