First Time Jobless Claims Drop 23K To Lowest Level Since April 2000

There are no special factors behind a stunning 23,000 decline in initial jobless claims in the October 11 week to a 264,000 level that is not only the lowest of the recovery but is lowest since all the way back in April 2000. The decline pulls the 4-week average down 4,250 to 283,500 which is the lowest since June 2000 and is more than 15,000 below the month-ago trend.

Continuing claims, which are reported with a 1-week lag, rose 8,000 in the October 4 week from the prior week's recovery low to 2.389 million. But the 4-week average continues to make new recovery lows, down 10,000 to 2.404 million while the unemployment rate for insured workers continues to hold at a recovery low of 1.8 percent.

This report offers convincing confirmation of September's decline in the unemployment to under 6.0 percent, at 5.9 percent. Next week's report will be especially important as the sample week will match the sample week for the October employment report.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Initial jobless claims edged 1,000 lower to a lower-than-expected 287,000 in the October 4th week while the 4-week average fell a very sharp 7,250 in the week to 287,750. From a month ago, the average was down 7,500 which is a comparison that offers an early hint of strength for the October employment report. The average was also at a new recovery low, its lowest level since February 2006. Continuing claims, which are reported with a 1-week lag, tell the same story. Continuing claims in the September 27 week fell 21,000 to 2.381 million for a new recovery low while the 4-week average fell 28,000 to a new recovery low of 2.414 million.