Consumer Setiment Up On Jobs Outlook And Income

Consumer sentiment finished September right at the Econoday consensus, at 84.6 vs 84.6 at mid-month and up from 82.5 from final August. The gain from August is centered in the expectations component which came in at 75.4 for final September, up 4.1 points from August which points to confidence in the outlooks for jobs and for income. The current conditions component, however, fell back slightly, down 0.9 points from August to 98.9 in a dip that does not point to strength for current consumer activity nor strength in the September jobs market. Inflation isn't a factor behind the dip in current conditions as 1-year expectations fell 2 tenths from August to 3.0 percent with 5-year expectations down 1 tenth to 2.8 percent in declines that reflect the price contraction underway at the gas pump.

The Reuters/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index in early September climbed to 84.6 versus a final August reading of 82.5 and a mid-month August reading of 79.2. The gain, however, was centered in the expectations component, not the current conditions component which slipped to 98.5 vs 99.8 in final August and 99.6 in mid-month August. But the gain in expectations, to 75.6 versus 71.3 in final August and well up from 66.2 in mid-month August, does point to long-term confidence in the jobs and income outlooks.