Housing is the focus for the coming week starting
off on Monday with the monthly survey from the nation's home builders
followed on Tuesday by housing starts and permits, all of which are
expected to show solid but non-accelerating strength. Existing home
sales follow on Wednesday and here a significant rise is expected,
though from a depressed level. FHFA home price data are out on Thursday
and here too a respectable but unspectacular result is the call.
Thursday will also see jobless claims, where data for initial claims
will track the sample week of the June employment report, together with
the June edition of the Philly Fed manufacturing report where unusual
strength is the routine call.
Monday
Housing Market Index for June
Consensus Forecast: 70
Consensus Range: 68 to 72
Home-builder confidence has been stable at strong
levels reflecting growth for new home sales and especially permits.
Econoday's consensus calls for steady strength in the housing market index, unchanged at 70 in June.
Tuesday
Housing Starts for May
Consensus Forecast, Annualized Rate: 1.320 million
Consensus Range: 1.270 to 1.350 million
Building Permits
Consensus Forecast: 1.350 million
Consensus Range: 1.325 to 1.385 million
A jump higher for housing starts and a steady showing for building permits
are the expectations for May, at a 1.320 million annualized rate for
starts, compared to 1.287 million in April, and 1.350 million for
permits vs April's 1.352 million. Results in this report have been flat
in recent months though the underlying trends are solidly positive
with starts up 10.5 percent year-on-year and permits up 7.7 percent.
Wednesday
Current Account Deficit for First Quarter
Consensus Forecast: -$129.0 billion
Consensus Range: -$138.0 to -$123.0 billion
With net exports no weaker than the fourth quarter, the current account deficit is
expected to hold little changed in the first quarter. Econoday's
consensus is calling for a $129.0 billion deficit vs the fourth
quarter's $128.2 billion. As a percentage of GDP, the current account
deficit was 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter.
Existing Home Sales for May
Consensus Forecast, Annualized Rate: 5.520 million
Consensus Range: 5.440 to 5.650 million
Existing home sales fell below
Econoday's low estimate in April and a sizable bounce back is expected
in May, to a consensus annualized rate of 5.520 million vs April's
5.460 million. Even with a better showing, resales have been stubborn
and weak as April's year-on-year rate was in the minus column at
negative 1.4 percent.
Thursday
Initial Jobless Claims for June 16 week
Consensus Forecast: 220,000
Consensus Range: 215,000 to 225,000
Vs 218,000 in the prior week, initial claims
are expected to come in at 220,000 in the June 16 week which is also
the sample week for the monthly employment report. All readings in this
report are at or near historic lows and consistent with strong demand
for labor.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June
Consensus Forecast: 28.0
Consensus Range: 20.0 to 33.1
Very slight cooling is the consensus for June's Philly Fed report
which in May posted a 45-year high for new orders. This report has
been coming in at or above Econoday's high estimates in results that
hint at overheating strength for this sample. The consensus for June is
28.0 vs May's 34.4.
FHFA House Price Index for April
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.4%
Consensus Range: 0.3% to 0.8%
The FHFA house price index has
been elevated but did come down in March, posting its slowest showing
in more than three years with a monthly gain of only 0.1 percent. A 0.4
percent rise is the expectation for April though this rate too would be
subpar for this index. Yet cooling may be a plus given the strength of
prior gains, indicated by March's 6.7 annual rate of appreciation.
Index of Leading Economic Indicators for May
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.4%
Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.5%
The spread between short rates and long rates is narrowing yet expectations for the index of leading economic indicators,
where the yield spread has been a strong contributor, are solidly
positive. Forecasters are calling for a 0.4 percent gain in May driven
by exceptional strength in ISM manufacturing orders and the month's
rise in the stock market.
Friday
PMI Composite for June, Flash
Consensus Forecast: 56.3
Consensus Range: 54.0 to 57.0
PMI Manufacturing
Consensus Forecast: 56.5
Consensus Range: 55.3 to 56.8
PMI Services
Consensus Forecast: 56.2
Consensus Range: 54.0 to 57.2
Moderate-to-strong growth has been the signal from the PMIs with services having shown reacceleration in May. The flash June consensus for the PMI composite is 56.3 with PMI manufacturing seen at 56.5 and PMI services at 56.2.
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