The Business News Week Ahead

Housing is the focus for the coming week starting off on Monday with the monthly survey from the nation's home builders followed on Tuesday by housing starts and permits, all of which are expected to show solid but non-accelerating strength. Existing home sales follow on Wednesday and here a significant rise is expected, though from a depressed level. FHFA home price data are out on Thursday and here too a respectable but unspectacular result is the call. Thursday will also see jobless claims, where data for initial claims will track the sample week of the June employment report, together with the June edition of the Philly Fed manufacturing report where unusual strength is the routine call.

Monday

Housing Market Index for June

Consensus Forecast: 70

Consensus Range: 68 to 72 

Home-builder confidence has been stable at strong levels reflecting growth for new home sales and especially permits. Econoday's consensus calls for steady strength in the housing market index, unchanged at 70 in June.

Tuesday

Housing Starts for May

Consensus Forecast, Annualized Rate: 1.320 million

Consensus Range: 1.270 to 1.350 million

Building Permits

Consensus Forecast: 1.350 million

Consensus Range: 1.325 to 1.385 million

A jump higher for housing starts and a steady showing for building permits are the expectations for May, at a 1.320 million annualized rate for starts, compared to 1.287 million in April, and 1.350 million for permits vs April's 1.352 million. Results in this report have been flat in recent months though the underlying trends are solidly positive with starts up 10.5 percent year-on-year and permits up 7.7 percent.

Wednesday

Current Account Deficit for First Quarter

Consensus Forecast: -$129.0 billion

Consensus Range: -$138.0 to -$123.0 billion

With net exports no weaker than the fourth quarter, the current account deficit is expected to hold little changed in the first quarter. Econoday's consensus is calling for a $129.0 billion deficit vs the fourth quarter's $128.2 billion. As a percentage of GDP, the current account deficit was 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter.

Existing Home Sales for May

Consensus Forecast, Annualized Rate: 5.520 million

Consensus Range: 5.440 to 5.650 million

Existing home sales fell below Econoday's low estimate in April and a sizable bounce back is expected in May, to a consensus annualized rate of 5.520 million vs April's 5.460 million. Even with a better showing, resales have been  stubborn and weak as April's year-on-year rate was in the minus column at negative 1.4 percent.

Thursday

Initial Jobless Claims for June 16 week

Consensus Forecast: 220,000

Consensus Range: 215,000 to 225,000

Vs 218,000 in the prior week, initial claims are expected to come in at 220,000 in the June 16 week which is also the sample week for the monthly employment report. All readings in this report are at or near historic lows and consistent with strong demand for labor.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June

Consensus Forecast: 28.0

Consensus Range: 20.0 to 33.1

Very slight cooling is the consensus for June's Philly Fed report which in May posted a 45-year high for new orders. This report has been coming in at or above Econoday's high estimates in results that hint at overheating strength for this sample. The consensus for June is 28.0 vs May's 34.4.

FHFA House Price Index for April

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.4%

Consensus Range: 0.3% to 0.8%

The FHFA house price index has been elevated but did come down in March, posting its slowest showing in more than three years with a monthly gain of only 0.1 percent. A 0.4 percent rise is the expectation for April though this rate too would be subpar for this index. Yet cooling may be a plus given the strength of prior gains, indicated by March's 6.7 annual rate of appreciation.

Index of Leading Economic Indicators for May

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.4%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.5%

The spread between short rates and long rates is narrowing yet expectations for the index of leading economic indicators, where the yield spread has been a strong contributor, are solidly positive. Forecasters are calling for a 0.4 percent gain in May driven by exceptional strength in ISM manufacturing orders and the month's rise in the stock market.

Friday

PMI Composite for June, Flash

Consensus Forecast: 56.3

Consensus Range: 54.0 to 57.0

PMI Manufacturing

Consensus Forecast: 56.5

Consensus Range: 55.3 to 56.8

PMI Services

Consensus Forecast: 56.2

Consensus Range: 54.0 to 57.2

Moderate-to-strong growth has been the signal from the PMIs with services having shown reacceleration in May. The flash June consensus for the PMI composite is 56.3 with PMI manufacturing seen at 56.5 and PMI services at 56.2.