The Business News Week Ahead

Inflation is the concentrated focus for the coming week starting on Tuesday with the producer price report which may offer the first hard evidence on price effects tied to steel and aluminum tariffs. On Wednesday consumer prices will offer the latest on whether tariff or wage pressures are beginning to be passed through while on Thursday import prices will update the inflationary effects of dollar depreciation. Also to watch will be two afternoon reports on Wednesday, FOMC minutes and with them details on the inflation debate inside the Fed and also the March Treasury Budget and an update on the early impact of this year's tax cuts. Inflation returns to the headlines with an expectations update in the consumer sentiment report on Friday which will also see the release of the latest job openings tally in the JOLTS report.

Tuesday

Small Business Optimism Index for March

Consensus Forecast: 106.5

Consensus Range: 105.0 to 108.0

Forecasters are calling for solid but easing strength in the small business optimism index which hit Econoday's top forecast in February on gains for the sales outlook and economic expectations. Econoday's call for March is 106.5 vs February's 107.6.

PPI-FD for March

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.1%

Consensus Range: 0.0% to 0.4%

PPI-FD Less Food & Energy

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.3%

PPI-FD Less Food, Energy, & Trade Services

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.4%

Amid reports of price volatility for steel and aluminum, the March producer price report could show the first definitive effects of U.S. tariffs. But forecasters aren't calling for much impact in March, at a consensus 0.1 percent gain though the high estimate is at 0.4 percent.. Less food and energy is seen up 0.2 percent with less food, energy and trade services expected to rise 0.3 percent.

Wholesale Inventories for February

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 1.1%

Consensus Range: 0.9% to 1.1%

February wholesale trade inventories are expected to rise 1.1 percent, in line with the month's advance reading and following strong builds of 0.8 and 0.7 percent in the two prior months.

Wednesday

Consumer Price Index for March

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.0%

Consensus Range: -0.1% to 0.5%

Consumer Price Index

Consensus Forecast, Year-on-Year Change: 2.4%

Consensus Range: 2.2% to 2.5%

CPI Core, Less Food & Energy

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%

Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.3%

CPI Core, Less Food & Energy

Consensus Forecast, Year-on-Year Change: 2.0%

Consensus Range: 1.9% to 2.1%

Pressures were up in January but quiet in February with the March consensus for consumer prices especially subdued, at no change. A modest 0.2 percent increase is expected for core prices (less food & energy) with the year-on-year rate, however, expected to show some pressure at a 2 tenths gain to 2.0 percent.

FOMC Minutes

Covering the March 20-21 Meeting

Moderation was the theme of the March FOMC, headlined by no increase in rate hike projections and including modest descriptions of economic growth and consumer and business spending. There was no upgrade for inflation though the surrounding debate is likely to be the highlight of the meeting's minutes.

Treasury Budget for March

Consensus Forecast: -$186.5 billion

Consensus Range: -$187.0 billion to -$185.0 billion

The Treasury budget for March will update the effects of this year's tax cut which lowered both individual and corporate receipts in the first two months of the year. At $391 billion from October to February, the government's fiscal year-to-date deficit was running 11.5 percent deeper than the prior year. Econoday's consensus for March is calling for a large deficit of $186.5 billion.

Thursday

Initial Jobless Claims for April 7 week

Consensus Forecast: 230,000

Consensus Range: 229,000 to 232,000

Initial claims are expected to come in at 230,000 in the April 7 week vs an outsized jump to 242,000 in the prior week. Even at 242,000, claims have been consistent with minimal layoffs and strong demand for labor.

Import Prices for March

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.4%

Consensus Range: -0.1% to 0.5%

Export Prices

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%

Consensus Range: 0.0% to 0.4%

Inflationary effects of the lower dollar are what to watch for in import prices where Econoday's March consensus is a sizable 0.4 percent gain. In February, import prices rose 0.4 percent despite a sharp decline in petroleum prices. Export prices are seen rising 0.3 percent in March.

Friday

Consumer Sentiment Index, Preliminary April

Consensus Forecast: 100.8

Consensus Range: 99.0 to 102.0

The consumer sentiment index for preliminary April is expected to come in at 100.8 vs March's 14-year high of 101.4. The current conditions component, driven by strong assessments from lower income respondents, posted a record 121.2 in March, in contrast to a tick lower for the expectations component which fell to 88.8 and reflected softer income prospects among the high income bracket. Inflation expectations in this report have been moving higher but very slowly.

JOLTS: Job Openings for February

Consensus Forecast: 6.150 million

Consensus Range: 6.000 to 6.350 million

Job openings are expected to ease back in February to a consensus 6.150 million from January's unusually strong 6.312 million. Openings have been getting further ahead of hirings suggesting that employers are having trouble finding candidates to fill slots.