Inflation is the concentrated focus for the coming
week starting on Tuesday with the producer price report which may offer
the first hard evidence on price effects tied to steel and aluminum
tariffs. On Wednesday consumer prices will offer the latest on whether
tariff or wage pressures are beginning to be passed through while on
Thursday import prices will update the inflationary effects of dollar
depreciation. Also to watch will be two afternoon reports on Wednesday,
FOMC minutes and with them details on the inflation debate inside the
Fed and also the March Treasury Budget and an update on the early
impact of this year's tax cuts. Inflation returns to the headlines with
an expectations update in the consumer sentiment report on Friday which
will also see the release of the latest job openings tally in the
JOLTS report.
Tuesday
Small Business Optimism Index for March
Consensus Forecast: 106.5
Consensus Range: 105.0 to 108.0
Forecasters are calling for solid but easing strength in the small business optimism index
which hit Econoday's top forecast in February on gains for the sales
outlook and economic expectations. Econoday's call for March is 106.5
vs February's 107.6.
PPI-FD for March
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.1%
Consensus Range: 0.0% to 0.4%
PPI-FD Less Food & Energy
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%
Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.3%
PPI-FD Less Food, Energy, & Trade Services
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%
Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.4%
Amid reports of price volatility for steel and aluminum, the March producer price report
could show the first definitive effects of U.S. tariffs. But
forecasters aren't calling for much impact in March, at a consensus 0.1
percent gain though the high estimate is at 0.4 percent.. Less food and energy is seen up 0.2 percent with less food, energy and trade services expected to rise 0.3 percent.
Wholesale Inventories for February
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 1.1%
Consensus Range: 0.9% to 1.1%
February wholesale trade inventories
are expected to rise 1.1 percent, in line with the month's advance
reading and following strong builds of 0.8 and 0.7 percent in the two
prior months.
Wednesday
Consumer Price Index for March
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.0%
Consensus Range: -0.1% to 0.5%
Consumer Price Index
Consensus Forecast, Year-on-Year Change: 2.4%
Consensus Range: 2.2% to 2.5%
CPI Core, Less Food & Energy
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%
Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.3%
CPI Core, Less Food & Energy
Consensus Forecast, Year-on-Year Change: 2.0%
Consensus Range: 1.9% to 2.1%
Pressures were up in January but quiet in February with the March consensus for consumer prices especially subdued, at no change. A modest 0.2 percent increase is expected for core prices
(less food & energy) with the year-on-year rate, however, expected
to show some pressure at a 2 tenths gain to 2.0 percent.
FOMC Minutes
Covering the March 20-21 Meeting
Moderation was the theme of the March FOMC,
headlined by no increase in rate hike projections and including modest
descriptions of economic growth and consumer and business spending.
There was no upgrade for inflation though the surrounding debate is
likely to be the highlight of the meeting's minutes.
Treasury Budget for March
Consensus Forecast: -$186.5 billion
Consensus Range: -$187.0 billion to -$185.0 billion
The Treasury budget for March
will update the effects of this year's tax cut which lowered both
individual and corporate receipts in the first two months of the year.
At $391 billion from October to February, the government's fiscal
year-to-date deficit was running 11.5 percent deeper than the prior
year. Econoday's consensus for March is calling for a large deficit of
$186.5 billion.
Thursday
Initial Jobless Claims for April 7 week
Consensus Forecast: 230,000
Consensus Range: 229,000 to 232,000
Initial claims are expected to
come in at 230,000 in the April 7 week vs an outsized jump to 242,000
in the prior week. Even at 242,000, claims have been consistent with
minimal layoffs and strong demand for labor.
Import Prices for March
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.4%
Consensus Range: -0.1% to 0.5%
Export Prices
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%
Consensus Range: 0.0% to 0.4%
Inflationary effects of the lower dollar are what to watch for in import prices
where Econoday's March consensus is a sizable 0.4 percent gain. In
February, import prices rose 0.4 percent despite a sharp decline in
petroleum prices. Export prices are seen rising 0.3 percent in March.
Friday
Consumer Sentiment Index, Preliminary April
Consensus Forecast: 100.8
Consensus Range: 99.0 to 102.0
The consumer sentiment index for preliminary April
is expected to come in at 100.8 vs March's 14-year high of 101.4. The
current conditions component, driven by strong assessments from lower
income respondents, posted a record 121.2 in March, in contrast to a
tick lower for the expectations component which fell to 88.8 and
reflected softer income prospects among the high income bracket. Inflation expectations in this report have been moving higher but very slowly.
JOLTS: Job Openings for February
Consensus Forecast: 6.150 million
Consensus Range: 6.000 to 6.350 million
Job openings are expected to ease back in February
to a consensus 6.150 million from January's unusually strong 6.312
million. Openings have been getting further ahead of hirings suggesting
that employers are having trouble finding candidates to fill slots.
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