Inflation will be the week's special focus
beginning on Tuesday with the consumer price report where any pressures
at the core level could retrigger market concerns for a fourth rate
hike this year. Keeping the inflation focus will be two reports that
have shown increasing traction: producer prices on Wednesday followed
on Thursday by import and export prices. The week's data get rolling on
Monday with the Treasury statement for February where attention will
be on both individual and corporate receipts and the unfolding effects
of this year's tax cut. Consumer spending has been soft in recent
months and February's retail sales report, where strength is the call,
will be Wednesday's highlight. The week ends with key data on the
housing sector, starts and permits, and also on the factory sector and
whether the manufacturing component of the industrial production will
finally show some life.
Monday
Treasury Budget for February
Consensus Forecast: -$216.0 billion
Consensus Range: -$230.0 billion to -$200.0 billion
The Treasury budget for February
will offer early indications on the effects of this year's tax cut. The
Econoday consensus is calling for a monthly deficit of $216.0 billion.
Tuesday
Small Business Optimism Index for February
Consensus Forecast: 107.1
Consensus Range: 105.5 to 107.6
Forecasters are calling for further acceleration in the small business optimism index
which rose sharply in January on strength in earnings trends and
optimism over expansion plans. Econoday's call for February is 107.1 vs
January's 106.9.
Consumer Price Index for February
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%
Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.4%
Consumer Price Index
Consensus Forecast, Year-on-Year Change: 2.2%
Consensus Range: 2.1% to 2.3%
CPI Core, Less Food & Energy
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%
Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.3%
CPI Core, Less Food & Energy
Consensus Forecast, Year-on-Year Change: 1.9%
Consensus Range: 1.8% to 2.0%
Indications of price pressures for wholesalers and importers have yet to appear in force in consumer prices . Though the prior report for January did show higher costs for basics, only a limited increase is expected for February's core rate
(less food & energy) which is seen up a modest 0.2 percent with
the year-on-year expected to rise 1 tenth to 1.9 percent. The consensus
for the headline CPI is also a monthly gain of 0.2 percent for a yearly rate that is also seen up 1 tenth, to 2.2 percent.
Wednesday
PPI-FD for February
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%
Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.5%
PPI-FD Less Food & Energy
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%
Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.3%
PPI-FD Less Food, Energy, & Trade Services
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%
Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.3%
Boosted by increases in service prices, producer prices resumed their march higher in January though forecasters are calling for moderating increases in February. The headline consensus is plus 0.2 percent. Less food and energy is seen up 0.2 percent with less food, energy and trade services expected to rise 0.3 percent.
Retail Sales for February
Consensus Forecast: 0.4%
Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.6%
Retail Sales Ex-Autos
Consensus Forecast: 0.4%
Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.6%
Retail Sales Ex-Autos Ex-Gas
Consensus Forecast: 0.4%
Consensus Range: 0.0% to 0.5%
Retail Sales Control Group (Ex-Food Services, Ex-Autos, Ex-Gas, Ex-Building Materials)
Consensus Forecast: 0.5%
Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.7%
After weak results in December and January, retail sales are expected to show some snap back in February with Econoday's consensus at a solid 0.4 percent. When excluding autos, where unit sales were flat in February, forecasters also see a 0.4 gain percent as they do when excluding both autos and also gasoline. When excluding autos, gas, food services and building materials, control group sales are expected to come in at a 0.5 percent gain.
Business Inventories for January
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.5%
Consensus Range: 0.3% to 0.6%
A sizable build of 0.5 percent is expected for January business inventories, an increase that would give an early boost to the inventory component of first-quarter GDP.
Thursday
Initial Jobless Claims for March 10 week
Consensus Forecast: 230,000
Consensus Range: 225,000 to 235,000
Initial claims are expected to
come in at 230,000 in the March 10 week vs 231,000 in the prior week.
Claims have been low and consistent with minimal layoffs and strong
demand for labor.
Import Prices for February
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%
Consensus Range: -0.1% to 0.4%
Export Prices
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%
Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.5%
Import prices, boosted by increases in vehicles and
food, showed pressure in the January report even when excluding
petroleum. Moderation is the call for February with import prices expected to rise a moderate 0.3 percent with export prices also seen at an increase of 0.3 percent.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for March
Consensus Forecast: 23.3
Consensus Range: 20.0 to 26.8
At a March consensus of 23.3, robust strength is once again the expectation for the Philly Fed manufacturing index.
Rising backlogs and expectations of rising selling prices are the
latest trends in a sample that would appear to be at risk of hitting
capacity constraints.
Empire State Index for March
Consensus Forecast: 14.6
Consensus Range: 10.2 to 16.0
A bit cooler than the Philly Fed, expectations are nevertheless strong for February's Empire State index
where the consensus is 14.6. Increased hiring, slowing deliveries, and
traction for selling prices are some of the signs of capacity stress
in this report.
Housing Market Index for March
Consensus Forecast: 72
Consensus Range: 70 to 73
Home-builder confidence has been extremely strong
with improvement in customer traffic an ongoing highlight. Assessments
of current and future sales have been robust and have offered useful
indications of gains for new home sales and permits. Econoday's March
consensus calls for steady strength, at 72 for the housing market index which would be unchanged from February.
Friday
Housing Starts for February
Consensus Forecast, Annualized Rate: 1.284 million
Consensus Range: 1.256 to 1.322 million
Building Permits
Consensus Forecast: 1.324 million
Consensus Range: 1.300 to 1.392 million
Less strength is the expectation for February housing starts where the consensus is a 1.284 million annualized rate vs January's 1.326 million, as well as for housing permits,
at a consensus 1.324 million rate vs 1.377 million. Starts and permits
both surged in January led by the key single-family component. Note
that the consensus ranges for both are wide.
Industrial Production for February
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%
Consensus Range: 0.0% to 0.7%
Manufacturing Production
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.4%
Consensus Range: 0.2% to 1.0%
Capacity Utilization Rate
Consensus Forecast: 77.7%
Consensus Range: 77.4% to 77.9%
Industrial production has been held back by weakness in the report's manufacturing component
though a bounce back, based on a factory-hour rise in the employment
report, is the call for February, at a 0.3 percent increase overall and
a 0.4 percent gain for manufacturing. Overall capacity utilization has been on the climb and another increase is expected, to 77.7 percent vs January's 77.5 percent.
Consumer Sentiment Index, Preliminary March
Consensus Forecast: 98.5
Consensus Range: 97.0 to 101.5
The consumer sentiment index is expected to open March at a preliminary
98.5 and down from February's 99.7. This report, which had been flat
compared to other confidence reading, jumped sharply in February
despite volatility in the stock market.
JOLTS: Job Openings for January
Consensus Forecast: 5.800 million
Consensus Range: 5.800 to 5.890 million
Job openings are expected to hold
steady in January at 5.800 million vs December's lower-than-expected
5.811 million which marked the third decline in five months and pulled
down the year-on-year gain to what is a still healthy 4.9 percent. In
an economy at or close to full employment and possibly nearing the risk
of wage inflation, a bit of cooling in openings might be a welcome sign
of cooling.
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