Factory Orders Fall

Anecdotal reports on the factory sector have shown isolated strength that actual government data have yet to show. Factory orders fell a sizable 1.5 percent in June following a downward revised 1.2 percent decline in May. Core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) have been especially weak though orders did rise 0.4 percent in June. Shipments for this category, however, slipped 0.2 percent following a downward revised 0.7 percent decline in June in readings that will not boost revision estimates for second-quarter GDP.

Orders for nondurable goods were a plus in June, rising 1.0 percent but reflect price effects tied to energy products. Durable goods fell 3.9 percent in the month which is one 1 tenth lower than last week's advance report for this component. Orders for computers & electronics were especially weak in the month as were orders for transportation equipment with civilian aircraft, which is always volatile month to month but nevertheless has been weakening on trend, falling 59 percent. Vehicles are a plus in the report, with orders up 3.2 percent.

A major negative in the report is a 0.8 percent drop in total unfilled orders where contraction is a negative for factory employment. Total shipments are a positive, up 0.7 percent in a gain that may not be repeated should orders stay weak. A plus is that inventories edged lower, pulling down the inventory-to-shipment ratio to 1.35 from 1.36.

The factory sector, held down by weak exports and weak business investment centered in energy, has shown isolated signs of life but has yet to pull its weight so far this year.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Factory orders are expected to fall 1.8 percent in June as the advance release of a 4.0 percent decline in the durables component is expected to be offset by oil-related price strength for nondurables. Capital goods orders have been very weak underscoring caution in business expectations and further trouble for the nation's productivity.