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Thursday, June 23, 2016

Leading Economic Indicators Fall

Skewed by a since-reversed rise in jobless claims, the index of leading economic indicators fell 0.2 percent in May. Initial unemployment claims were by the far the greatest negative as they approached 300,000 per week in the month but have since settled back to the 260,000 area, a retreat that points to strength for the June LEI. Except for the interest rate spread, which once again is the biggest positive and one largely reflecting Fed accommodation, the other 8 components show virtually no change. This report, though closely watched, is offering an uncertain indication right now on the economic outlook.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
The index of leading indicators is expected to rise a modest 0.2 percent in May, which would follow April's unusual 0.6 percent jump outside of which this indicator has been flat. May will get a boost from a 0.7 percent jump in housing permits offset, however, by a rise in the month's unemployment claims and a dip in the stock market.

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