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Friday, April 15, 2016

Industrial Production Contracts In March

Regional reports have been signaling emerging strength for the factory sector which helps ease the sting from a second straight 0.6 percent contraction for industrial production, the latest report for March.

The manufacturing component, pulled down by a 1.6 percent decline in vehicle production, fell 0.3 percent following, after a downward revision, a 0.1 percent decline in February. Weakness in vehicle production is no surprise given declines underway in vehicle sales.

The report's other two components are also in the negative column, at minus 1.2 percent for a second month of contraction for utilities and at a very steep minus 2.9 percent for mining which, showing no lift yet from the gain in oil prices, is now in contraction for seven straight months. Capacity utilization is also down, 5 tenths lower to 74.8 percent which is not a plus for factory employment.

The depreciation in the dollar and uptick in oil prices are pluses for manufacturing, a sector however that clearly showed no traction in March.

Note that the traditional non-NAICS numbers for industrial production may differ marginally from the NAICS basis figures.


Recent History Of This Indicator:
Swings in utility output, typical at this time of year and especially evident during this winter's unusual weather, often skew the headline for the industrial production which dropped 0.5 percent in February to mask a respectable 0.2 percent rise in the manufacturing component. Forecasters see overall production improving but still slipping by 0.1 percent in March with manufacturing slowing, to only a consensus 0.1 percent gain. This report, at consensus, would not raise the economic outlook.

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