Empire State Manufacturing Report Shows Life

After a deeply negative run from August to February, the Empire State report is showing real life. Today's index, which is the first factory indication on April, rose sharply to a higher-than-expected 9.56 level that is in solid expansion ground. New orders are even a bit stronger at 11.14 which follows February's 9.57. Unfilled orders are still shrinking but only just barely, at minus 0.96 which is the best reading since July. Shipments are at 10.17 for a second straight gain. And for the first time since August, employment is back over zero, at plus 1.98. Prices paid shows a sharp increase to 19.23, the result of higher petroleum prices. What's really impressive in this report is that key readings are all in solid and sustainable positive ground. This year's depreciation in the dollar is a certain plus for exports and may now be emerging as a plus in factory data.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The Empire State report was the first of several regional reports in March to signal a rebound following a half-year of contraction. New orders showed substantial strength in the March report and they support the consensus forecast for plus 3.00 in the overall index for April. This doesn't sound like much but would be the strongest reading since March last year. The 6-month outlook was also strong in the February report, pointing to optimism that this year's dip in the dollar is certain to help exports.