A clear negative in today's report is a downgrade for personal consumption expenditures, to an annualized plus 2.0 percent in the quarter vs an initial estimate of 2.2 percent. Otherwise, revised readings are steady to unchanged with non-residential investment, hit by the mining and energy sectors, down at a 1.9 percent rate and exports down at an even steeper 2.7 percent rate. Residential investment remains the big plus, rising at an 8.0 percent rate. But final sales were slow in the quarter, up only 1.2 percent.
The economy, held down by weak exports and weak business investment, fumbled into year-end 2015, but the early outlook for the first quarter calls for a turn higher to trend growth, perhaps as much as 3 percent. Key data for the first quarter will be posted later this morning with the January personal income and expenditures report..
Recent History Of This Indicator:
The second estimate for fourth-quarter GDP is expected to come in at plus 0.4 percent vs an initial reading of plus 0.7 percent. The decrease reflects expectations for lower inventory accumulation and lower readings for both residential and non-residential investment. But it was consumer spending that was the highlight of the first estimate, rising at an annualized 2.2 percent in strength that has extended into the first quarter this year.
The second estimate for fourth-quarter GDP is expected to come in at plus 0.4 percent vs an initial reading of plus 0.7 percent. The decrease reflects expectations for lower inventory accumulation and lower readings for both residential and non-residential investment. But it was consumer spending that was the highlight of the first estimate, rising at an annualized 2.2 percent in strength that has extended into the first quarter this year.
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