Manufacturing PMI At Lowest Reading In More Than Three Years

In yet another negative signal for the manufacturing sector, the manufacturing PMI fell to 51.3 for the lowest reading in more than three years. This compares with 52.8 in the final reading for November and against 52.6 in the November flash. New orders are very slow this month, showing the softest rate of monthly expansion in more than six years. And in an ominous indication, slowing here not only reflects weakness in export orders, which have been soft all year, but now also for domestic markets especially investment demand in the energy sector. This latter detail is also ominous as many had been hoping that energy spending, having hit deep lows, would begin to rebound. Also note that backlog orders are in contraction for a second month in the weakest monthly reading in three years.

Production increased only marginally in the month for the weakest rate in more than two years. Despite all the weakness, the sample's employment is up so far this month though further gains, given all the weakness, are definitely in doubt. Inventories of finished goods moved higher in the month but the build is likely unplanned, tied to weak production. Price data remain very quiet.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
The manufacturing PMI, which had been posting much stronger levels of activity than other manufacturing reports, slowed sharply in November with new orders showing their slowest pace in more than two years. Export orders have been in outright contraction, once again the result of weak foreign demand made weaker for U.S. goods by the strength of the dollar. Forecasters see the December flash holding steady at November's 52.8 level.