Industrial Production At Low End Of Forecasts For November

November was another weak month for the industrial economy, in part reflecting unusually warm temperatures that are driving down utility output. Industrial production came in at the Econoday low forecast, down a very sharp 0.6 percent in November. This is the biggest drop in 3-1/2 years. Utility output fell a monthly 4.3 percent after falling 2.8 percent in October. Mining, reflecting low commodity prices and contraction in energy extraction, has also been week, down 1.1 percent for a third straight decline.

This brings us to the most important component, manufacturing where October's 0.3 percent bounce higher (revised downward from 0.4 percent) now unfortunately looks like an outlier. Manufacturing production came in unchanged in November reflecting weakness in motor vehicles, down 1.0 percent in the month, and also a dip back for construction supplies which fell 0.2 percent after a weather-related surge of 2.3 percent in October. One positive is a slight snapback for business equipment which, after declines in the two prior months, rose 0.2 percent.

All the weakness is pulling down capacity utilization, to 77.0 percent in November for a heavy 5 tenths dip. Utilization is running more than 3 percentage points below its long-term average. Mining utilization is now under 80 percent, down 1.1 points in the month to 79.4 percent. Utility utilization fell 3.4 points in the month to 74.5 percent with manufacturing utilization down 1 tenth to 76.2 percent. Excess capacity, though not cited as a major factor behind the lack of inflation in the economy, does hold down the cost of goods.

Year-on-year rates confirm the weakness, down 1.2 percent overall with utilities down 7.6 percent and mining down 8.2 percent. Manufacturing is in the plus column but not by much at plus 0.9 percent.

Weather factors are skewing utility output but otherwise, readings are fundamentally soft and reflect the downturn in global demand made more severe for U.S. producers by strength in the dollar.

(Note that the traditional non-NAICS numbers for industrial production may differ marginally from the NAICS basis figures.)

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Down 0.2 percent, industrial production was weak in October but not the manufacturing component where production, boosted by strong demand for construction supplies, rose a solid 0.4 percent to end two prior months of decline and offering rare good news for a sector that has been hurt by weak exports. The warm weather here in the U.S. is behind the strength in construction supplies and also behind a big dip in utility output which is what pulled down the October headline. And more of the same is expected for November with the Econoday consensus at minus 0.2 percent for the headline but up 0.1 percent for manufacturing.