Index Of Leading Economic Indicators Shows Solid Rise

Boosted by yesterday's strong showing for housing permits, the index of leading economic indicators rose a solid 0.4 percent in November on top of October's very strong 0.6 percent rise. Other positives include the interest-rate spread, specifically low short-term rates, and also gains for the stock market. Negatives are led by ISM's new orders index in a reminder that the nation's factory sector is being held down by weak foreign demand. In sum, the index continues to point to rising economic activity in the months ahead. Other details include a slowing in the coincident index, to plus 0.1 percent vs gains of 0.2 and 0.3 percent in the prior two months, and a solid showing for the lagging index, at plus 0.3 percent vs prior gains of 0.2 and 0.5 percent.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Leading indicators had been dead flat since July until jumping 0.5 percent in October, in a gain helped by the month's rebound in the stock market and gains for housing permits. But October's jump aside, this index has been pointing to no more than sluggish growth for the economy. And the Econoday consensus isn't calling for much strength in November, at a 0.2 percent gain.